Despite supply chain disruptions, inflation, and challenges like the new COVID-19 omicron variant, the National Retail Federation’s (NRF) chief economist said today that holiday spending can turn out even better than the retail trade association earlier forecasted.

“Now that we’re in December, the holiday shopping season is nearing the finish line. The question is how have factors ranging from economic indicators to the twists of the COVID-19 pandemic affected the season so far, and what role will they play in the weeks that remain? There’s no crystal ball to provide a definitive answer, but the latest data is encouraging and provides useful insights. In fact, the season could turn out even better than we expected. Consumers and retailers have both revised their playbooks and broken with previous traditions. With the momentum we’ve seen so far likely to continue, it seems probable that we will exceed our initial projection.”

Jack Kleinhenz
NRF Chief Economist

Kleinhenz’s remarks came in the December issue of NRF’s Monthly Economic Review.

Highlights:

• 11.5% | Holiday retail sales during November and December could grow as much as 11.5 percent over the same period in 2020.
• Between 8.5% and 10.5% | Such spending would exceed NRF’s forecast that holiday sales would be up between 8.5 percent and 10.5 percent.
• Consumers remain in solid financial shape and do not appear to be stretched. With shopping starting earlier, the Thanksgiving weekend (including Small Business Saturday) now helps to mark off the holiday season rather than serving as the kickoff it once was.
• 4.1% | Over the past year, disposable personal income has been up 4.1 percent
• 12% | During the past year, personal spending has increased 12 percent
• Initial unemployment claims fell to their lowest level since 1969 the weekend before Thanksgiving
• 546,000 jobs were added to payrolls in October followed by 210,000 in November
• 4.2% | The November unemployment rate fell to a new pandemic low of 4.2 percent.
• Initial unemployment claims fell to their lowest level since 1969 the weekend before Thanksgiving
• 546,000 jobs were added to payrolls in October followed by 210,000 in November
• 4.2% | The November unemployment rate fell to a new pandemic low of 4.2 percent.
• 4.2 million jobs | Continued strong growth rates will reduce the 4.2 million jobs needed to return employment to pre-pandemic levels

However, there are “potential economic wildcards”

NRF economist Kleinhenz called the COVID-19 omicron variant “the latest wildcard raising uncertainty around the economic outlook,” but said it is too early to predict what impact it will have on the economy. The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment declined to 67.4 in November, its lowest level in a decade, but Kleinhenz said spending data is a more relevant measure of consumer behavior.

Source

NRR Monthly Economic Review: December 2021

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51 million shoppers participated in Small Business Saturday.

The importance of supporting local businesses remained top of mind for many consumers, with 71% indicating they were shopping specifically on Small Business Saturday. Black Friday surpassed Cyber Monday in terms of total online shoppers, with 88 million shopping online the Friday after Thanksgiving compared with 77 million on Monday.

“Retailers have adapted and enticed customers with a number of incentives throughout November. The Thanksgiving holiday weekend remains a significant time for friends and families to check specific holiday items off their lists. Over the last few years, consumers have shifted their holiday shopping plans to start earlier in the season.”

NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay

179.8 million | Number of unique shoppers who made in-store and online purchases during the holiday weekend. The figure compares with 186.4 million shoppers in 2020 and is in line with the average of the last four years.
49% | Percentage of shoppers surveyed who said they took advantage of early holiday sales or promotions before Thanksgiving this year. 
82% | Percentage of shoppers surveyed who felt the deals were the same or better than last Thanksgiving weekend.

The number of people who shopped in stores increased this year. 

Retailers saw an increase in foot traffic, with approximately 104.9 million shoppers visiting stores, up from 92.3 million in 2020.

The overall number of online shoppers decreased to a total of 127.8 million from 145.4 million last year. 

Black Friday remained the most popular day for in-store shopping, with 66.5 million shoppers.

$301.27 | Holiday-related purchases such as gifts, décor, apparel, and toys. (This is down slightly from $311.75 in 2020.

Top gift purchases over the weekend (bought by percent of those surveyed)

51% | Clothing and accessories
32% | Toys
28% | Gift cards/certificates
27% | Books, music, movies, video games 
24% | Electronics

With a longer holiday shopping season, consumers have welcomed the flexibility it offers. 

84% | Percentage of holiday shoppers surveyed who said they have already started shopping
52% | Percentage of holiday shoppers surveyed who said they have already completed their holiday shopping

SOURCE | NRF defines the holiday season as of November 1 through December 31 and has forecast that sales will grow between 8.5 percent and 10.5 percent over 2020 to between $843.4 billion and $859 billion. According to NRF’s annual survey released in October, consumers plan to spend $997.73 on gifts, holiday items, and other non-gift purchases for themselves and their families this year. The survey of 5,759 adult consumers was conducted November 24-29 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.3 percentage points.

Read more about the holiday season at the NRF Winter Holiday Headquarters.

The 12th annual Small Business Saturday takes place this year on November 27, 2021 (the Saturday after Thanksgiving). American Express created the event as a counterpart to promotions supporting big-box retailers (Black Friday) and  Cyber Monday which encourage shoppers to buy products through big box retail stores and mega-online e-commerce channels. While local holiday events that promote holiday shopping have been around for decades, Small Business Saturday helped turn the day into a national marketing event that reminds consumers why it is important to support small and local businesses, products, and services.

According to the U.S Chamber of Commerce, shoppers have also been eager to jump on board and support their local small businesses. Last year, the U.S. Small Business Administration reported Americans spent nearly $20 billion on Small Business Saturday, and in the years before that, consumers spent a cumulative $100 billion-plus related to the event.

Small business owners and their customers understand the importance of supporting small and local businesses

56% | Percentage of small business owners who agree that customer support is more critical than ever. (1)

78% | Percentage of owners who say holiday sales will impact their ability to keep their doors open in 2022. (1)

“The past year has presented unique challenges for small business owners across the country. It has never been more vital to support the small businesses that make our communities unique and contribute to the culture of our neighborhoods. Small Business Saturday provides us with an opportunity to connect with our local community and remind them to get out and shop small all holiday season.”

Nicole and Michael Nicholas owners of Aunts et Uncles in Brooklyn, NY

Advice from shoppers on ways small businesses can encourage seasonal shopping

A recent survey of holiday shoppers commissioned by Union Bank revealed the hurdles consumers say they are facing this holiday shopping season. (2)

When asked what would make the consumers more likely to shop at a small business this year, here are some of the responses.

64% | Offer holiday sales
59% | Offer unique, exclusive gifts
49% | Provide free local delivery’
48% | Offer online ordering
47% | Offer price breaks
46% | Provide a cheery, holiday experience

“Purchasing locally handcrafted items or the gift of an experience, such as a concert, can be more personal and more fun,” Deborah Small, professor of marketing and psychology at Wharton Business School recently told ConsumerReports.org. “By choosing something handcrafted or locally grown, or making a purchase that helps support a neighborhood business, your gift will be more personal and authentic,” she said.

See SmallBusiness.com posts throughout the years.

”Photos:
Nicole Nicholas, Aunts et Uncles, Brooklyn, NY via American Express
Gettyimages.com

Sources

(1) The American Express Shop Small Impact Study consisted of two studies conducted by Teneo on behalf of American Express. The consumer survey was an anonymous online survey conducted from October 13-18, 2021 among a sample of 1,013 adults 18 years of age and older. The American Express Shop Small Impact Study consisted of two studies conducted by Teneo on behalf of American Express. The consumer survey was an anonymous online survey conducted from October 13-18, 2021 among a sample of 1,013 adults 18 years of age and older. Consumer data is weighted by five variables: age, sex, geographic region, race and education to ensure reliable and accurate representation of the total U.S. population, 18 years of age and older based on U.S. Census data. The small business owner survey was conducted online among a sample of 523 small business owners/managers in the U.S. from October 12-19, 2021. Respondent companies must conduct sales in a physical location in one of the following industries: arts/entertainment/recreation, retail trade, restaurant/bar/coffee shop/hotel/hospitality, or personal services.

(2) Union Bank Small Business Holiday Spending 2021 Survey: Research was gathered through an online survey commissioned by Union Bank and conducted by global independent research firm Edelman DxI. The survey was completed by 1,000 U.S. consumers (age 18+) and 200 U.S. small business owners, sampled to be nationally representative. Data was collected between Oct. 5 and Oct. 13, 2021. The margin of error is +/- 2 percentage points.

While the overall number of shoppers from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday dropped slightly from 189.6 million in an unusually robust 2019, this figure is still significantly higher than the 165.8 million shoppers in 2018.

• Between Black Friday through Small Business Saturday saw tremendous growth in online activity.
• For the first time, the number of online Black Friday shoppers passed the 100 million mark, up 8 percent over last year.
• The number of online Saturday shoppers, typically associated with small business shoppers grew even more, up 17 percent compared with last year.
• Online-only shoppers increased by 44 percent for the entire weekend, for a total of 95.7 million.

38% | Percenage of shoppers who aid they checked off holiday purchases in the week leading up to Thanksgiving.

52% | Percentage of holiday shoppers who said they took advantage of early holiday sales and promotions this year.

53% | Shoppers who say that promotions over the weekend were the same as they had been earlier in the season.

Thanksgiving in-store shopping was down given both the state of the pandemic as well as the number of retailers who opted to close on Thanksgiving Day, according to the NRF.

With consumer traffic moving to online channels, the number of in-store shoppers on Thanksgiving Day dropped by 55 percent from last year.

Black Friday dropped by 37%

An earlier NRF survey found that 70 percent of holiday shoppers say they feel safe shopping in stores this holiday season given the precautions retailers have taken for COVID-19.

Over the five-day period, shoppers spent an average of $311.75 on holiday-related purchases such as gifts or decorations, down from last year’s total of $361.90 but comparable to 2018’s $313.29.

Of that amount, nearly three-quarters ($224.48) was spent directly on gifts.

51% | Shoppers said they were more interested in holiday decorations and seasonal items.

77% | Percentage of shoppers who indicated they were more interested in supporting small businesses this year.

“The growth in online activity this year was significant, particularly for Black Friday and Saturday shoppers,” Prosper Executive Vice President of Strategy Phil Rist said.“With the start to the holiday shopping season continuing to move up even earlier, consumers will further utilize these channels.”

Top gift purchases over the weekend included

52% | Clothing
32% | Toys
32% | Books, music, movies, video games
29% | Gift cards, certificates
27% | Electronics

Shopping destinations

39% | Grocery stores
33% | Clothing stores
31% | Electronics stores

It’s time again for Small Business Saturday. 

The event began eleven years ago as a promotion by American Express. Soon it was embraced by local, state, and national small businesses, organizations, and governmental agencies. (See map.)

A brief history of Small Business Saturday

Here are some of the ways that Small Business Saturday has evolved over the last decade.

2010 | Small Business Saturday was created and sponsored by American Express, who registered the URL SmallBusinessSaturday.com and registered the trademark for the term Small Business Saturday. The company also created a Facebook page supporting the event and also promoted the event with national television advertising and a broad array of public relations activities. 

As part of the 2010 promotion, the first 10,000 small business owners who signed up to participate received $100 worth of free Facebook advertising, and the first 200,000 American Express cardholders who pledged to use their credit cards on Small Business Saturday to support small businesses received a $25 credit.

2011 | Beginning in 2011, American Express created the  Small Business Saturday Coalition as a means for small business development groups, along with federal, state and location governments and associations, could participate collaboratively.

2013 |In 2013, American Express began to use another trademarked advertising tagline, “Shop Small,” in its Small Business Saturday promotions. The tagline enables the company to extend the marketing efforts surrounding Small Business Saturday into other parts of the year.

2014 | A new promotional aspect of 2014 included an interactive map for participating businesses that accept American Express cards. 

2015 | In 2015, American Express produced and ran TV and online commercials promoting Small Business Saturday featuring the Muppets.

2018 |An estimated 104 million American consumers supported local retailers and restaurants, spending $17.8 billion on Small Business Saturday 2018, according to American Express and the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)

2019 | Small Business Saturday celebrates its tenth anniversary with a new spokesperson, Lin-Manuel Miranda, the creator of the Broadway musical Hamilton and Karlie Kloss, model and entrepreneur.

2020 | While American Express has shifted its small business messaging to a year-round emphasis using its “Shop Small” message, the need to support small businesses has become (especially during the pandemic) a rallying cry to shoppers and sellers to Shop Small — on Small Business Saturday. 

Look for small businesses online, as well.

84.2 million shoppers | Black Friday
59.9 million shoppers | Small Business Saturday
37.8 million shoppers | Thanksgiving Day
29.2 million shoppers | Sunday
21.8 million shoppers | Cyber Monday (21.8 million).

“Of those shopping on Saturday, 73 percent were likely to shop specifically for Small Business Saturday.”

(Source: NRF.com)

Thanksgiving weekend drew nearly 190 million shoppers

A record 189.6 million U.S. consumers shopped from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday this year, an increase of 14 percent over last year’s 165.8 million. Thanksgiving is still a critical weekend for millions,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a conference call on Tuesday, Dec. 3.

“Whether they’re looking for something unique on Main Street, making a trip to the store or searching for the best deals from their mobile device, this is when shoppers shift into high gear. With the condensed holiday season, consumers are feeling the pressure to get their shopping done in time. Even those who typically wait until the last minute to purchase gifts turned out in record numbers all weekend long.”

NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay

$362 | Average amount spent by shoppers, up 16 percent from $313.29 during the same period last year.

124 million | Number of people who shopped in stores
142 million | Number of people who shopped on retailers’ websites
75.7 million | Shopped in both channels

$366.70 million | Amount spent by those who shopped in both channels

“The growth in online retail sales is a tide that lifts everybody,” Prosper Executive Vice President of Strategy Phil Rist said. “When consumers are buying from retailers online but picking up or making returns in-store, it is more and more difficult to distinguish between the sales retailers make in their stores and the ones they make on their websites.”

Top gift purchases during five-day shopping holiday

58% | Apparel
33% | Toys
31% | Electronics
28% | Books/music/movies/video games
27%| Gift cards

Shopping destinations cited by surveyed shoppers

50% | Department store
36% | Clothing store
34% | Grocery store
32% | Electronics store
29% | Discount store

On average, consumers had completed 52 percent of their shopping holiday shopping, up from 44 percent during the same period last year. Thanksgiving came six days earlier in 2018, making this year a “short shopping season.”

The survey found only 39 percent of shoppers believe deals seen over the Thanksgiving weekend will get better throughout the rest of the season.

NRF defines the holiday season as November 1 through December 31 and has forecast that sales will total between $727.9 and $730.7 billion. 

Photos: American Express Facebook Page, Getty Images

From Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, more than 165 million Americans shopped in stores and online, surpassing the 164 million shoppers predicted by the National Retail Federation (NRF). This “after-weekend” NRF survey even revealed some new shopping patterns. (Note: This is our last post related to Thanksgiving weekend holiday spending. We will post another round-up after New Year’s Day.

“For several years, we’ve been talking about the dynamic nature of the retail industry and the speed of change necessary to meet the consumer demand,” NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said. This year’s research clearly shows that the investments made by retailers are paying off in a big way.”This is a very strong emotional start to the holiday season and a positive indicator of where we are headed over the next month.”

$313.29 | Average amount spent on gifts and other holiday items over the five-day period
$217.37 (69%) | Spent on gifts
$413.o5 | Average amount spent by Millennials and Gen Xers (35-44 years old)
89 million | Number of people who shopped both online and in-store.
40% | Year-over-year percentage growth in the number of people shopped both online and in-store.
$93 | The average amount by which a multichannel shopper outspent an average single-channel shopper.

Angie Rigato browses at the stores in the Wynwood Shops as the holiday shopping season begins in earnest on November 27, 2018 in Miami, Florida (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

Purchases made over the long weekend showed
new trends coming from younger consumers

“Gen Zers and younger millennials aged 18-24 spent
an average on holiday purchases for themselves, more than any other generation.”

Matthew Shay, NRF CEO

Pedro Roa (R) helps Pierre-Gabriel Daviot as he shops in the Nomad Tribe Store in Miami, Fla.. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

Top five-day weekend purchases
From Thursday (Thanksgiving) through Monday (Cyber Monday)

57% | Apparel
34% | Toys
29% | Books and video games
26% | Electronics
20% | Gift cards

Most popular shopping days

67.4 million | Cyber Monday shoppers
67 million | Black Friday shoppers (most in-store shoppers)
47.4 million | Small Business Saturday shoppers

Smartphone purchases

66% | Percentage of smartphone owners who used their mobile devices to make holiday decisions, up from 63 percent last year

Top destinations during the shopping weekend 

42% | Department stores
38% | Online retailers
30% | Apparel stores
30% | Grocery stores
29% | Discount stores
27% | Electronics stores

Still, a long way to go

56% | The average percentage of holiday shoppers have left to do
92% | Percentage of shoppers who believe that the strong deals seen over Thanksgiving weekend will continue or improve throughout the rest of the season

GettyImages

On Tuesday (11.28.2017) the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Prosper Insights and Analytics released sales highlights of digital and bricks & mortar stores during the long weekend. On Monday, American Express and NFIB released similar statistics for Small Business Saturday. Here are highlights of the five-day weekend, the unofficial opening of the holiday shopping season.

Shoppers

174 million |  Number of Americans who shopped in stores and online during the holiday weekend

Average spending per shopper over the five-day period

$335.47 | Average purchase per shopper
$250.78 (75%) |  Average portion of purchases that were gifts
$419.52 | Average spent per Millennial (25-34 years old)

“From good weather across the country to low unemployment and strong consumer confidence, the climate was right, literally and figuratively, for consumers to tackle their holiday shopping lists online and in stores”

Matthew Shay
President and CEO, National Retail Federation

64 million | Shoppers who shopped both online or in stores (multichannel) during the five days

$82 | Multichannel shopper spent an average of $82 more than online-only shopper
$49 | Multichannel shopper spent an average of $49 more than instore-only shopper

Time of day the shopping took place

11% |  Percentage of shoppers before 5 p.m. on Thanksgiving Day
25% | Percentage of shoppers who started  shopping at 10 a.m. or later on Black Friday
49% | Percentage of shoppers who started  who started shopping early in the morning on Cyber Monday

Location where the shopping took place

75% | Percentage of shoppers using their computers at home
43% | Percentage of shoppers using a mobile device
13% |  Percentage of shoppers using their computer at work

What influenced shopper’s purchase most

60% | Sales
48% | Said deals were better than earlier this season

Places where people did their shopping

43% | Department stores
42% | Online retailers
32% | Electronic stores
31% | Clothing and accessories stores
31% | Discount stores

Types of merchandise shoppers purchased

58% | Clothing or accessories
38% | Toys toys
31% | Books and other media
30% | Electronics
23% | Gift cards

Small Business Saturday

More shoppers reported visiting local independent businesses on Small Business Saturday this year than ever before, according to results from the Small Business Saturday Consumer Insights Survey, released Monday by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) and American Express. Here are more insights from the report.

Where did you make your favorite purchase of the day?

19% | Restaurant / bar / pub
9% | Clothing and accessories store
7% | Food store / supermarket
7% |Gift / novelties / souvenirs store

After posting that item, a SmallBusiness.com user sent us the one-week trendline graphic displayed above. It demonstrates people using Google on Saturday dramatically spiked up searches for the term “small business.”

(Source: Google Trends).

(Note: Google Trends measures the trajectory of a specific search term. Each data point is divided by the total searches of the geography and time range it represents, to compare relative popularity. Otherwise places with the most search volume would always be ranked highest. The resulting numbers are then scaled on a range of 0 to 100 based on a topic’s proportion to all searches on all topics.)

Started in 2010, Small Business Saturday still has not yet gained the level of awareness of Black Friday or Cyber Monday. At least, not yet. The day continues to grow in popularity and recognition. Created by American Express, the day started out as an event to remind holiday shoppers to support their locally owned and operated small businesses — not just the big boxes and online mega-ecommerce websites. This year, more small businesses — even those who don’t accept American Express — joined in the celebration. Across the nation, in cities and small towns from coast-to-coast, people were dropping by their favorite shops and markets.

A few of the hundreds of news articles covering Small Business Saturday, 2016

Small Business Saturday overtaking holiday spending

Norwalk, Conn., was offering downtown visitors free parking on Saturday, and Stamford planned to host an extravaganza filled with free popcorn, gift card giveaways and a selfie station.

Chicago-based businesses celebrate Small Business Saturday

WLS-TV – After Black Friday comes Small Business Saturday, when locally owned businesses make a push for your holiday shopping dollars.

Oklahomans show support for Small Business Saturday

kfor.com – The Oklahoma community was able to help increase local tax revenue by shopping local on Small Business Saturday. It’s a day co-owners of Deer Creek Boutique, Tami Owens and Brittany Thompson, look forward to every year.

Valley shoppers hit independent stores on Small Business Saturday

Las Vegas Review-Journal – Shoppers in the Las Vegas Valley this weekend joined the national Small Business Saturday celebration, an effort established in 2010 by American Express to encourage spending at independent retailers and restaurants during the holiday shopping rush.